Underemployment Surge in February 2025: How a 460,000 Jump in Part-Time Jobs Shook the Crypto Market and Signaled Economic Fragility

The Jobs Report Reality Check: Part-Time Work Spikes

On March 12, 2025, at 9:00 AM EST, The Kobeissi Letter dropped a bombshell on X: February’s U.S. jobs data revealed a 460,000-person surge in part-time workers seeking full-time roles, pushing the total to 4.9 million — the highest since May 2021. Over the past 2.5 years, this underemployment figure has ballooned by 1.3 million, a 36% rise from 3.6 million in August 2022 (Kobeissi, 2025). For me, a crypto trader who watches macro signals like a hawk, this wasn’t just a labor stat — it was a flashing warning of economic fragility. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) defines these workers as “part-time for economic reasons,” meaning they’re stuck in part-time gigs due to slack demand or inability to find full-time work. A 2024 BLS report pegged the average part-time worker’s wage at $15/hour versus $32/hour for full-time — a 53% gap. That’s less disposable income, weaker consumer spending, and a shaky foundation for risk assets like crypto.

The market felt it. By 10:00 AM EST, Bitcoin (BTC) had dropped 2.3%, from $65,997 pre-news to $64,500, per CoinMarketCap. Ethereum (ETH) slid 1.8%, from $3,259 to $3,200 (CoinMarketCap). Pre-report, BTC was testing $66,000 resistance, and ETH was holding $3,270 — both on a mild uptrend. This underemployment spike signaled trouble: if 4.9 million Americans can’t find full-time work, economic growth might stall, spooking investors away from speculative assets. A 2025 Coinbase survey found 70% of crypto traders react to U.S. jobs data within 24 hours, up from 58% in 2023 — this dip was no surprise.

Market Reaction: Volatility Kicks In

As a trader, I live for volume spikes — they’re where opportunities hide. On March 12, BTC’s 24-hour trading volume surged 15%, from $39.13 billion at midnight EST to $45 billion by 11:00 AM EST (CoinGecko). ETH’s volume rose 12%, from $18 billion to $20.16 billion. On Binance, the BTC/USDT pair jumped 18%, from $18.64 billion at 9:00 AM EST to $22 billion by 11:00 AM EST. ETH/USDT climbed 12%, from $8.93 billion to $10 billion. For context, BTC’s 7-day average volume was $40 billion — Tuesday’s $45 billion was 12.5% above norm. On KuCoin, BTC/USDT volume rose 20%, from $5 billion to $6 billion, showing the ripple wasn’t just a Binance blip.

Why the surge? Underemployment at 4.9 million hinted at a cooling economy. Less full-time work means less spending — think fewer $50,000 car purchases or $2,000 laptops, which drags GDP. Crypto thrives on risk-on sentiment, and this news flipped the script. If you held 10 BTC at $65,997 ($659,970), the $64,500 low cost you $14,970 in an hour. ETH’s $59 drop per coin on a 100-ETH stack meant $5,900 gone. But scalpers pounced — Binance’s BTC/USDT 5-minute chart showed 58% sell volume from 10:00 AM to 10:15 AM EST, flipping to 53% buys by 10:45 AM as dip-buyers stepped in. A $10,000 BTC short at 3x leverage from $65,500 to $64,500 netted $2,250 profit — volatility was a goldmine if you timed it right.

Technical Fallout: Bearish Signals Dominate

The charts turned grim fast. On TradingView’s 14-day chart, BTC’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell from 48 at 9:00 AM EST to 45 by 11:00 AM EST — nearing oversold territory below 40. ETH’s RSI dropped from 45 to 42. Pre-news, BTC’s 7-day RSI average was 50 — neutral — but this dip signaled selling pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) confirmed it: BTC’s MACD line crossed below the signal line at 11:00 AM EST (from 20 to -10, histogram at -30), and ETH’s followed at 11:15 AM EST (from 15 to -5, histogram at -20), per TradingView. On the 1-hour chart, BTC broke its $65,000 support at 10:20 AM EST, a level held since March 9, while ETH cracked $3,230 at 10:25 AM EST.

Volume backed the bearish vibe. Binance’s BTC/USDT 10:00–11:00 AM EST candle hit 340,000 BTC traded ($22 billion), 25% above the prior hour’s 272,000 BTC. ETH/USDT rose 20%, from 2.8 million ETH to 3.36 million ETH ($10 billion). On-chain, Glassnode showed BTC’s active addresses fell 7%, from 914,000 at midnight EST to 850,000 by 11:00 AM EST. ETH’s dropped 5%, from 526,000 to 500,000. A 2024 Santiment report ties a 5%+ active address drop to 65% of bearish moves — this fit the pattern. If RSI hit 40, I’d eye $64,000 as a BTC dip-buy, but MACD’s bearish cross hinted at $63,500 first — patience was key.

AI Tokens Feel the Heat: A Subtle Ripple

No direct AI news hit on March 12, but the macro mood bled into AI tokens. SingularityNET (AGIX), tied to decentralized AI, dipped 1.5%, from $0.812 to $0.80 (CoinMarketCap). Fetch.AI (FET) fell 1.3%, from $1.39 to $1.37 (CoinGecko). AGIX’s trading volume ticked up 3%, from 48.5 million tokens ($39.4 million) to 50 million ($40 million), per CoinGecko — speculative nibbling amid the dip. CryptoQuant pegged AGIX-BTC correlation at 0.75 on a 30-day rolling basis, meaning 75% of AGIX’s price moves mirrored BTC’s. FET-BTC correlation was 0.72 — tight enough to feel the heat.

Why does this matter? AI tokens often buck macro trends with tech news — AGIX jumped 5% after a February 2025 update (CoinMarketCap) — but not today. A 2025 Messari report notes AI tokens’ $14 billion market cap, up 40% from 2024, but macro waves still hit hard. If you held 10,000 AGIX at $0.812 ($8,120), the $0.80 low cost $120 — not brutal, but a sign of broader risk-off sentiment. AI trading bots, like those on Fetch.AI, likely amplified volume — 2024 data from Dune Analytics shows 15% of AI token trades are bot-driven, versus 8% for BTC. Monitoring AGIX at $0.78 or FET at $1.35 as dip-buy zones made sense if BTC stabilized.

Broader Implications: Economic Clouds Loom

The 460,000 underemployment surge isn’t just a number — it’s a red flag. Since August 2022, 1.3 million more Americans are underemployed, a 36% rise to 4.9 million. That’s 3% of the labor force — up from 2.3% in 2022 (BLS). Consumer spending drives 70% of U.S. GDP (World Bank, 2024); part-time workers earning $15/hour versus $32/hour for full-time (BLS, 2024) means less cash for big-ticket buys — think $1,000 iPhones or $500/month car payments. Weaker spending could slow GDP growth, nudging the Fed toward rate cuts but spooking risk assets now. Crypto’s 70% inverse correlation with the U.S. dollar (Kraken, 2024) kicked in — the DXY rose 0.4% to 104.5 by 11:00 AM EST (Reuters), pressuring BTC and ETH.

For traders, it’s a wake-up call. BTC’s $64,500 low offered a $1,497 dip per coin from $65,997 — buyers at $64,500 who sold at $64,800 by 1:00 PM EST (CoinMarketCap) made $300 per coin. But the mood was cautious. A 2025 Security.org survey found 55% of crypto holders expect U.S. economic slowdowns to hit hardest in Q2 — March 12 felt like a preview. As of March 14, 2025, at 7:01 AM CET, I’m watching $63,500 BTC and $3,150 ETH as next supports — underemployment data just turned up the heat.